Seasonal climate predictions for marine risk assessment in the Barents Sea

We investigate the potential for using seasonal climate predictions marine risk assessment in Barents Sea. Marine is based on diagnostic of probability extreme conditions and their consequences to identify time regions vulnerable hazards. The information operationally provided by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) support sustainable safe activities. So far, was historical observations. Here, we implement predicted probabilities from an ensemble German Meteorological Service. analyze summer three indicators DNV’s service: two them represent meteorological properties such as wind speed 2-meter temperature. third indicator, chill index (WCI), a combination previous two. prediction skill, “trust level” predictions, assessed over 1990–2017 suggests that temperature has highest skill followed WCI speed. In addition, use real-time actual application example. maps show large areas Sea favorable operations considering low likelihood above 1000 W/m2 T2m below 0 °C July August. Wind poorly beyond first forecast month. describe workflow service well lessons learned similar applications involving assessment.